From Space Daily: Who's Killing the Space Program?
This past August the U.S. landed a one-ton spacecraft on the surface of
Mars. Sending a spacecraft to Mars is not unique in itself, since we
have sent several exploration vehicles to the Red Planet over the past
five decades.
The latest such mission placed Curiosity Rover on Aeolis Palus in Gale Crater.
This very advanced rover system carries instruments that will look for
conditions relevant to the past or present habitability of the planet.
Over the next few years, Curiosity will explore its landing site while
searching for evidence that Mars was once capable of supporting life. Of
course, the other question is whether Mars could support life in the
future.
About two weeks after Curiosity arrived at Mars, NASA selected InSight
as its 12th mission in its Discovery Program. InSight (Interior
exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport)
will carry out a unique geophysical investigation of Mars, looking into
its deep interior to see why the Red Planet evolved so differently from
Earth.
The mission involves placing instruments on the Martian surface to
investigate whether the core of Mars is solid or liquid, and why Mars'
crust is not divided into tectonic plates that drift like those of
Earth.
Knowledge gained about the interior of Mars in comparison to Earth will
help scientists better understand how terrestrial planets form and
evolve.
However, Curiosity is certainly far and away the most complex vehicle to
reach Mars, and it may be the last of the rovers for decades to come.
Given the trend in space exploration budgets and the economy in general,
it is unlikely NASA will be able to afford any future missions of this
scale until such time that astronauts are sent to the planet. Since
there is no urgency to do this, it will be at least decades before the
U.S. will mount a human expedition to Mars.
NASA does have one other Mars mission planned to occur between Curiosity
and InSight. It is a modest orbiter called MAVEN, slated for launch
next year to study the planet's atmosphere.
Other modest missions may be funded in the interim decades ahead, but
budget cuts and ongoing indecision at NASA regarding future missions
suggests it could be a decade or more before any NASA mission touches
down on the Red Planet's surface beyond InSight.
NASA had agreed to work with the European Space Agency (ESA) on a joint
series of missions called ExoMars. However, when the Obama
administration released its fiscal year 2013 budget proposal last
February, there were no funds for NASA participation in ExoMars. That
decision also included a proposed 20-percent cut in NASA's overall
planetary sciences program.
Surely, part of the reason for the proposed cuts is the fact that the
Curiosity Rover mission saw its costs increase from initial estimates of
about $1.6 billion in 2006 to $2.5 billion by 2012.
In addition the original 2009 launch slipped to 2011. NASA's science
program has also been squeezed by the increasing costs of other complex
missions, such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), which now has
an estimated cost of $8 billion.
So, who is killing the space program? The answer seems to be: everyone
involved. Program managers and contractors underestimate program costs.
Politicians don't have a mandate to spend large amounts of money on
space exploration in the current budget environment.
NASA is not creating enough public excitement and interest in these
programs to demand that congress fund them. The space community is not
innovating new, low-cost missions of importance. There seems to be a
general malaise among the space "movers and shakers."
The simple truth seems to be that space exploration has matured to the
point where public interest levels have fallen while costs have risen to
extreme heights.
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
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